Hard lockdowns, liquor bans and the effect they have on crime

When the first hard lockdown (aka the Level 5 lockdown) was imposed at the end of March 2020 there was a big drop in the number of violent crimes recorded by the South African Police Service (SAPS). 

Murders dropped by 51%, attempted murders dropped by 41% and assault with the intent to do grievous bodily harm (GBH) dropped by 62% between March and April and only began to rise again in June when the lockdown level was lifted to a less restrictive Level 3.

Not only did the Level 4 and 5 lockdowns confine people to their homes, they were also accompanied by alcohol prohibitions, which may also have had a role in reducing violent crime. 

The shaded red areas in the charts below show periods where the sale of alcohol was banned.

Unfortunately, the most recently released crime stats, for April to June 2021, show that violent crime has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Violent crimes generally appear to increase at the end of the year, particularly in December. Lizette Lancaster, project manager at the Crime and Justice Information Hub at the Institute for Security Studies, said the increase in crime towards the end of the year is a seasonal trend.

“People were celebrating some freedom and we know that traditionally Decembers are very high violence times. That’s when many people congregate together, celebrate together, often fuelled by alcohol and drugs.

“We also know that people have had more socio-economic stresses and strains which also makes people more susceptible to arguments.” 

In January 2021, murders, attempted murders and assault GBH cases plummeted again, corresponding with a new alcohol ban put in place to curb the spread of Covid-19.

When the ban was lifted in March, murders increased again. By the end of March 2021 the number of murders reported during the January to March quarter were higher than the murders reported during the same quarter before the lockdown in 2020.

Assault GBH and rape

Reports from around the world suggest that the vacant streets and ‘stay home’ mandates during lockdowns may have cultivated the perfect environment for social pandemics like gender-based violence (GBV). 

When the first hard lockdown started on 27 March 2020, the number of requests for refuge at the Frida Hartley Women’s Shelter rose sharply. 

The shelter received an average of 20 phone calls and approximately 30 social media messages per day during the lockdown period, said Cheryl Hlabane, the centre’s operations manager.

Even before the pandemic, the shelter on a jacaranda-lined street in Yeoville, Johannesburg, was full to capacity. 

There was a tremendous decrease in crimes over all categories during the hard lockdowns. So much so that police minister Bheki Cele dubbed the period a “crime holiday”.

But the SAPS does not provide a breakdown of the gender of the victims of violent crimes, except from time to time in presentations given at the release of the quarterly crime stats, so it isn’t possible to tell if the lockdowns or alcohol bans since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic had an impact on gender-based violence.

Bernadine Bachar, director at the Saartjie Baartman Centre for women and children in Cape Town, said that they didn’t experience an initial lockdown-related influx of women seeking help, but within 48-hours of the first alcohol ban being lifted, all shelters in the Western Cape were filled to capacity.

The increase in GBV crimes in relation to alcohol use is concerning. Lisa Vetten, a research and project consultant at the University of Johannesburg, said such abusers elevate risk because alcohol blinds them to the extent of force they are using.

“Drunk men hit harder for longer and don’t notice when the woman is unconscious or has gone into shock.”  

Carjacking and truck hijacking

In the three months before the initial lockdown, carjackings had increased by almost 11%, but when the “stay home” mandate came into force at the end of March and most people stopped commuting to work, reports of the crime dropped by 72%. 

By June 2020, when the hardest-level lockdowns had lifted, carjackings increased to previous levels again. In fact, during the more lenient lockdowns, carjackings surpassed the 2019 rates. In May 2021 the crime had increased by 15% in comparison to 2019 numbers. 

According to a SAPS presentation made on the release of the crime statistics, sedans and hatchbacks were the most popular hijacking targets, followed by bakkies and panel vans. 

Truck hijacking, on the other hand, dropped in April, but picked up fairly quickly. Between July and December 2020, while the country was moving between lockdown levels three, two and one, truck hijackings increased by 33% compared with the same period the year before.

Lancaster said the surge in truck hijackings was probably due to criminals targeting delivery vehicles as South Africans opted for online shopping. 

In his speech at the release of the crime stats for January to March 2021, Cele said that 354 trucks or courier vans had been targeted for their cargo.

Stock-theft

Interestingly, stock-theft was the one criminal activity that experienced little to no cutback during the hard lockdown period. 

In April and May 2020, 2,497 and 2,485 cases of stock-theft were reported compared with 2,535 and 2,532 cases in April and May 2019. 

Overall, 30,981 instances of stock-theft were reported in 2019/20 and 28,627 were reported in 2020/21, a drop of just 7,6%.

Louis Malan, a cattle and wildlife farmer in Limpopo, said he implemented measures to curb stock-theft after many of his neighbouring farms fell victim to the crime.

“We also have high game fences which are electrified and we as a community have a security company that patrols our fences to keep an eye open for suspicious things.” 

Lancaster said that organised crime syndicates, such as those that are often involved with stock-theft, carjackings and truck hijackings, were actually able to thrive due to the pandemic. 

“A lot of these types of activities have continued without focused police intervention or monitoring or network interruptions. The police were battling their own safety, health and wellness issues.”

Note: The SAPS normally announces the crime stats for each quarter, but the monthly stats are contained in the spreadsheets that are available to download from the SAPS website. We contacted Lirandzu Themba, spokesperson for the Ministry of Police, to ask why SAPS only releases quarterly crime statistics when the monthly data is available.

Themba said, “[The] releasing of stats each quarter is in line with fulfilling a Cabinet resolution to release the Crime Statistics every quarter.”